Selling OREX off the rally on Monday (current price intraday $5.91). One of the main concerns with VVUS Qnexa drug was the lack of data (2 year results should be out sometime in the next 60 days). Meanwhile the latest OREX study just released is only 56 weeks of data.
The risk/reward profile for OREX is no longer attractive in my opinion. We have learned from the FDA advisory panel that longer term data is needed, especially for sensitive drugs that treat obesity / weight loss.
For more information, please see this article on SeekingAlpha
http://seekingalpha.com/article/217853-orexigen-steps-up-pace-in-obesity-drug-race
VVUS earnings transcript is out, a very quick read and very informative. It is definitely worth reading.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/218153-vivus-inc-q2-2010-earnings-call-transcript?source=email
The 2 year study is now completed and is being reviewed by the FDA. VVUS is working on analyzing all the data. This information should be available sometime in the 3Q to the shareholders.
VVUS is still optimistic that all 3 dosing levels for Qnexa will be approved.
On concerns with depression, "the other one [thing] I would say is that even those patients – and 75% of the patients that had adverse events for depression were able to continue on study, on drug. And if they were able to – and if they needed to go off drug, it resolved rapidly." (Leland Wilson, CEO)
Per my previous post, the risk reward is still favorable in VVUS. Yes, obviously we would have rather sold at $12 in hindsight, but with the stock trading at $5, there is no value for the possibility of Qnexa being approved in some form such as only certain doses or major warnings on the label.
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