I am by no means a 'grizzled' veteran of the grain markets but each year there are weather 'problems'. This year some of those problems did turn out to be real. However, the weather problems in wheat for instance took out world supply of 4% (please see previous posts for more detail).
Now that harvest season is upon the US, the harvest will help take any further concerns of weather 'problems' (at least in the US) out of the equation. Harvest season has gotten off to quite a strong start. According to the USDA, Corn harvested is at 27% vs the 5 year average of 15%. For Soybeans, the harvested rate is at 17% vs the 5 year average of 13%.
On Thursday, the USDA quarterly supply report will be released. The quarterly report does not give demand estimates, only in depth coverage of current supply. The current consensus is that it will be more bearish than bullish at these high price levels. The other big report is the October World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, which will be released on October 8th.
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