Buying pressure exhausted today in the grains?

I have been completely wrong on the grain markets this year.

Since Wheat has been leading the grain markets higher, it is important to understand the current supply situation. Weather problems, first in Canada, and then in Russia/Ukraine (Black Sea Wheat) have decreased wheat supply by approximately 4% worldwide.  At the time, the wheat market pushed above 850 on the concern that farmers of Black Sea Wheat would not be able to plant most of their crop for the following year.  Those concerns have since dissipated with normal weather, causing the price to fall back towards 700.  Currently, there are whispers of freeze issues in parts of China.  With all of these problems, the end game is that wheat supplies are still quite ample.  Going into this year, wheat carryover stocks were the highest in 10 years.  

Turning our attention to Soybeans, there is very little in the way of substitution between Wheat and Soybeans.  On the demand side, the Canola crop in Canada was damaged causing more demand for Soybean Oil.  In my opinion, most of the price increase is related to Wheat.

Price action today in Soybeans looked like buying pressure has finally been exhausted.  I am a big believer in psychological round numbers and Soybeans were unable to break 1100 in the front month (November) contract.  Harvest season will start in earnest for both Corn and Soybeans shortly.  US farmers will be selling their harvests in earnest. 

The trade today is to short Soybeans and use a stop above 1105 (to protect from a stop run)

The next trade is if Corn can close below 500 (current basis 508.50). I think once that occurs, you can get short the Corn market as well.