Apple (AAPL) reports 4Q 2011, another record quarter

Apple reported another record quarter.  Below are units sold for their 4 major product lines with comparisons sequentially and Year over Year (YoY) .

After product refreshes of the iPhone in 4Q2010 and iPad in 3Q2011, sale increases of 68% and 97% are seen.  Using a conservative number of a 25% increase for 1Q for iPhone, would put sales near 21.33 million units.  Using 34% which is half of the 68% increase from previous iPhone 4 update, would put sales near 25.53 million units.    



Valuation (in billions of dollars)

Even though we saw revenue growth of 66% for FY2011, guidance for the first quarter is for 38% growth.  Using the lower growth number and half the growth rate (giving a strong margin of safety) or a multiple of 19x. 

Free Cash Flow calculation.  I like to ignore changes in working capital and keep stock options as an expense as that is a real cost, regardless that it does not have a cash cost.

FCF = NI + Dep - CapEx - Acqusitions (3 years amortized) - Intangibles (3 years amortized)

22.284 = 25.922 + 1.814 - 4.260 - 0.294 - 1.192

Projected Stock Price = (FCF x Multiple + Cash Equivalents - Debt) / Diluted Shares

537.47 = (22.284 x 19 +81.57 - 0) / 0.93951