Sunday, December 25, 2011

Are you able to predict when a company stops growing?

After reading Phil Fischer "Common Stocks and Uncommon Profits" I decided to re-read the "Intelligent Investor", by Benjamin Graham.  During college (2000) I read the book as I first started hearing about Warren Buffett and him being the leading decipel of Benjamin Graham.

One of the principles that Graham asks rhetorically are you able to figure out when a growth stock stops growing?  He believes you cannot so the better investment is an investment in a stock that has a margin of safety.

Graham also speaks to overvaluation of growth stocks, which is my biggest issue.  Most of the growth stocks I like are trading at what I believe are excessive valuations.  One of my favorite places to eat, Chipotle (CMG) is trading far above a valuation I am willing to buy.  I am willing to buy CMG at $240, while CMG is trading above $330.  Perhaps in time I will be able to buy CMG and am willing to sell cash covered puts at that level.



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