EW Update

It appears that we are still headed on the same path (see post from August 25), albeit with a steeper retrace. At the 4:15pm close on the EMini, we are at 1090 which is just shy of the neighborhood of the 61.8% retrace.
















I still think we're headed for a move south to the 1000-1010 range. Perhaps the employment report tomorrow will trigger this turn? Or maybe it'll jolt us back over the 1100 threshold?

EW Frustration

My key frustration with EW is that waves are not "confirmed" until after the fact. This gives EW technicians a ton of flexibility to alter their respective wave structures. That being said, I am no longer thinking that we are in 3 of 3 of 3 of 3 of 3 (or whatever you want to call that big ugly wave that permabears have so patiently awaited.) Rather, I think what we just experienced is a 1 which finished this morning at the 1037 low on the Emini.

2 should retrace a good chunk of the move from 1130ish to 1037. My target range begins with 1063 (top of gap created yesterday morning on the cash) and reaches upwards to the 1085 level ( an even number above the 50% retrace)

See chart below:

Is Catastrophic Wave 3 of 3 of 3 Coming?

Please excuse my butcher job of EW, I am doing my best as a "chump" to include your theories in my day-to-day analysis. That being said, it looks like we're currently in a 2 wave which should be followed by an ugly 3. Over the past week or so we've seen the culmination of a rising bearish wedge (a 5 wave) followed by a huge sell off ending yesterday at open (a 1 wave) and now we're amidst a sharp rally (a 2 wave) which should end today or tomorrow according to the fib retracements.

Check out the chart:
















The market could get very uuuuugggly after this rally completes as some EW folks think that this is it---wave 3 of 3 of 3 of 3 of 3 of 3? Or, on the flip side, the bulls think we're headed back up to highs above the 1200 mark.

Happy trading!