SPX 3-22-12

Lackluster news out of China and Europe overnight but, another decent jobs report out of the US has us sitting slightly red at around 8:45am eastern.

All I have to say is that the bears cannot fail here. Everything has aligned --- gap through 1400 support, metals/energy/AAPL down, DX up, even RSI/MACD look more overbought than oversold which is very atypical for mornings of late.

The gap MUST hold.

Based on triangle formed with the last three trading days:

Bearish target: 1390 SPX

Bullish target (if gap should fail): 1420 SPX

Chart at the moment (looks like a little bear flag but will we get some selling to break down?):

SPX 3-14-12

Thank you, Jamie Dimon, for "leaking" the stress test results yesterday and sending a market that was in control into hyperdrive. I have to give you credit for your "cohones" for you sure know how to game the system. As long as the market goes up, nobody asks questions...

Gold got the message but apparently equities think that they can just decouple from the USD and all will still be hunky dory.


My charting abilities are somewhat limited so it's hard for me to illustrate the next resistance. 1400 is mainly psychological -- 1407 is some sort of Fib line between the 1500+ high and 660 low. So this should be tested in the next few days. I think everyone is afraid to sell at the moment but, that could change very quickly. I recall saying this same thing over and over in 2010 and the rally never ended. So if you have more "cohones" than me or are just plain aggressive, get long and hope for the best. Otherwise, keep your cash in your pockets.

SPX 3-13-12

Guess what? Another gap up! Really? Yes! When was the last time we had a gap down? I can't remember and they probably BTFD anyway so the point is moot.

Sorry for my awful humor, just a bit bitter this morning as the market rallied all night long. Do traders really think that the Fed will institute more easing with the market already at the highest level since 2008? Seriously, why must we view the 2007 highs as a target that must be met? Can't we be happy with what we have? Mind you, there are many solid companies out there now, ones who took advantage of the "recession" to get leaner and meaner and used free money to get more efficient. But apparently, we must see 1500 (or maybe 2000) before the hungry hungry hippos will stop buying.

Enough of my rant. As we stand right now, we should open at the 1378 high from 2/29. That said, RSI appears to be diverging, MACD appears to want to cross (both 5 minute ES), and VIX will likely gap down through its' Bollinger. Oh yeah? And the DX is camping out above $80. I don't think this gap up can hold, but it wouldn't surprise me if this was just the beginning of a mega short squeeze.............

How did I miss this Euro trade, and another try shorting Grains.

I really am a chump, this trade was not even on my radar.  I just got long the dollar by the DX futures. 

Chump1 is long DX futures.

This is on my radar, short wheat (December) with a close under 766 fib level