Showing posts with label SPX. Show all posts
Showing posts with label SPX. Show all posts
Wednesday, March 28, 2012
SPX 3-28-12
Whipsaw Wednesday? Market looks a little weak right now but like yesterday, I expect the range to be tight. VWAP STD bracket shows a current range of 1405-1411. Of course some volume at open will likely widen the brackets a bit so who knows. Just call me confused.
Bullish target has to be 1420-1440.
Bears must take out 1403 (10 day),1398 (13 day),1386 (3/23 low and 20 day) to even have me start thinking that a top is in.
Happy trading.
Bullish target has to be 1420-1440.
Bears must take out 1403 (10 day),1398 (13 day),1386 (3/23 low and 20 day) to even have me start thinking that a top is in.
Happy trading.
Friday, March 23, 2012
SPX 3-23-12
I am frankly clueless this morning. The close of yesterday had me thinking double-bottom with a rally in store for today but, it appears that rally occurred overnight followed by a whipsaw back down. That said, we are now in the midst of a bounce. Onus is on the bears to turn it downwards again. Support is clear here -- 1382.50 ES must break or buy buy buy.
Thursday, March 22, 2012
SPX 3-22-12
Lackluster news out of China and Europe overnight but, another decent jobs report out of the US has us sitting slightly red at around 8:45am eastern.
All I have to say is that the bears cannot fail here. Everything has aligned --- gap through 1400 support, metals/energy/AAPL down, DX up, even RSI/MACD look more overbought than oversold which is very atypical for mornings of late.
The gap MUST hold.
Based on triangle formed with the last three trading days:
Bearish target: 1390 SPX
Bullish target (if gap should fail): 1420 SPX
Chart at the moment (looks like a little bear flag but will we get some selling to break down?):
All I have to say is that the bears cannot fail here. Everything has aligned --- gap through 1400 support, metals/energy/AAPL down, DX up, even RSI/MACD look more overbought than oversold which is very atypical for mornings of late.
The gap MUST hold.
Based on triangle formed with the last three trading days:
Bearish target: 1390 SPX
Bullish target (if gap should fail): 1420 SPX
Chart at the moment (looks like a little bear flag but will we get some selling to break down?):
Wednesday, March 21, 2012
SPX 3-21-12
I apologize for my absence here over the past few trading days as I know we have like two hits a day and you must be eager for my tutelage....
Anyhow, we are beyond 11am and still red? Is this possible? I guess so, but, probably won't last long as we're only down like 25bps.
Bulls are still very much in control. Bears must break 1400 and then 1398 (yesterdays low) and 1390 (low from 3/14) to have any hopes of any kind of "correction".
Anyhow, we are beyond 11am and still red? Is this possible? I guess so, but, probably won't last long as we're only down like 25bps.
Bulls are still very much in control. Bears must break 1400 and then 1398 (yesterdays low) and 1390 (low from 3/14) to have any hopes of any kind of "correction".
Wednesday, March 14, 2012
SPX 3-14-12
Thank you, Jamie Dimon, for "leaking" the stress test results yesterday and sending a market that was in control into hyperdrive. I have to give you credit for your "cohones" for you sure know how to game the system. As long as the market goes up, nobody asks questions...
Gold got the message but apparently equities think that they can just decouple from the USD and all will still be hunky dory.
My charting abilities are somewhat limited so it's hard for me to illustrate the next resistance. 1400 is mainly psychological -- 1407 is some sort of Fib line between the 1500+ high and 660 low. So this should be tested in the next few days. I think everyone is afraid to sell at the moment but, that could change very quickly. I recall saying this same thing over and over in 2010 and the rally never ended. So if you have more "cohones" than me or are just plain aggressive, get long and hope for the best. Otherwise, keep your cash in your pockets.
Gold got the message but apparently equities think that they can just decouple from the USD and all will still be hunky dory.
My charting abilities are somewhat limited so it's hard for me to illustrate the next resistance. 1400 is mainly psychological -- 1407 is some sort of Fib line between the 1500+ high and 660 low. So this should be tested in the next few days. I think everyone is afraid to sell at the moment but, that could change very quickly. I recall saying this same thing over and over in 2010 and the rally never ended. So if you have more "cohones" than me or are just plain aggressive, get long and hope for the best. Otherwise, keep your cash in your pockets.
Monday, March 12, 2012
SPX 3-12-12 Update
Sorry that I'm a little late this morning --- I do have a job in case you wonder.
ES went back and forth overnight which is not atypical these days. Asia sells, Europe buys, and then a little dip before US open to give the BTFD guys some action early on. So we had our opening surge after a little dippy and now we're headed back down and are flirting with VWAP once again.
Pattern looks like a falling wedge. Expect a bounce. Bears have to force a second leg down that breaks a LOD to get the momentum flowing downward. Until then, bulls are CLEARLY in control so don't fight the trend.
Friday, March 9, 2012
SPX 3-9-12 Happy Friday
Well, TGIF for the Bears. It's been an awwwwful week of failure and I'm thinking there's likely more pain to come.
Chart below is the futures overnight. They were pretty much flat as expected leading up to the 830am eastern announcement of unemployment numbers which came in hot causing a nice little spike. I am of the belief that everyone and their momma knows that unemployment numbers just about always come in HOT so this should not have been a surprise to ANYONE.
That said, flat night = consolidation = bulls will likely have some fun today. Bears would need a big red stick to get us sub 1360 to have any chance at turning this thing downward.
GLTA.
Chart below is the futures overnight. They were pretty much flat as expected leading up to the 830am eastern announcement of unemployment numbers which came in hot causing a nice little spike. I am of the belief that everyone and their momma knows that unemployment numbers just about always come in HOT so this should not have been a surprise to ANYONE.
That said, flat night = consolidation = bulls will likely have some fun today. Bears would need a big red stick to get us sub 1360 to have any chance at turning this thing downward.
GLTA.
Thursday, March 8, 2012
SPX 3-8-12 [3PM Update]
Back to the same old game. Rally overnight or sell off overnight, either way, JBTFD by 11am and then lull the bears to sleep for a few hours before a JAM session into close. The next few trading days will tell me a bunch -- is this 2010 redux with stimulus fueling yet another bubble? Or will we actually see some realistic volatility in the market this year? I'm leaning heavily towards the former.
SPX 3-8-12
Simply stated -- bears better wake the f%ck up right now or we're headed much higher. Gap up overnight on news out of Greece that the latest bailout is a no-brainer for the private sector has equity greedy once more and already running through Fib lines like they are paper thin. Wait one moment --- didn't Greece actually technically default last week? Bah. That's so last week. Let's buy!!!!!
There is still some moderate hope for the bears so long as we don't take out the top at 1378. I'm not holding my breath though.
Resistance lines are 1363 (gap from 3/6 and 61% Fib retracement) and 1369 (gap from 3/5 and 78% Fib retracement)
Support lines are 1353 (gap from this morning) and then 1345 (34 dma) and 1340 low from 3/6.
Good luck out there.
There is still some moderate hope for the bears so long as we don't take out the top at 1378. I'm not holding my breath though.
Resistance lines are 1363 (gap from 3/6 and 61% Fib retracement) and 1369 (gap from 3/5 and 78% Fib retracement)
Support lines are 1353 (gap from this morning) and then 1345 (34 dma) and 1340 low from 3/6.
Good luck out there.
Wednesday, March 7, 2012
SPX 3-7-12
We have rallied for 3 months without much of a respite. Yet, the buy buy buy market took a break yesterday selling off about 1.5% and all the media pundits were crying about such a horrible day. Seriously?
Let's cut to the facts. A rising wedge has broken and now we sell until we find a support line that holds a few times and then we'll be back to mindless buying once again.
The support line that held yesterday was the 34 dma at 1342.82. Of course, there was a buying surge at 3:50pm yesterday that got us above that line, and the futures pretty much rallied all night to 1348ish. It appears to be a two push up and a bear flag so perhaps the overnight games are over and the dumping will begin at open.
If the 34 dma should fail, my near term support lines are 1325-1326 formed by the gap up on 2/3/12 followed by the 50 dma at 1321.35.
Hourly chart on the Futures is already starting to break down out of the bear flag however, I am concerned that VWAP (orange lines) will keep the market from going down. Only volume busts VWAP and with the exception of yesterday, volume has been non-existent on the downside. Once it kisses VWAP, bears are toast. Yesterday, despite the massive selling, we managed to avoid kissing VWAP, and thus, could continue selling without interruption from the mean reversion traders.
Bears are also fighting against the fact that yesterday was a major distribution down day. NYSE decliners were >2700 etc. Usually such days are followed by a bounce.
Lastly, the iPad3 press conference is today and we all know that AAPL can hold up the NQ which will in turn, keep the rest of the market afloat. AAPL made a nice panic bottom yesterday, early on, and almost made it back to green territory by close on this news. Anyone else find it odd that AAPL (now the largest market cap in the world) still trades like a penny stock with crazy bid/ask spreads?
Let's cut to the facts. A rising wedge has broken and now we sell until we find a support line that holds a few times and then we'll be back to mindless buying once again.
The support line that held yesterday was the 34 dma at 1342.82. Of course, there was a buying surge at 3:50pm yesterday that got us above that line, and the futures pretty much rallied all night to 1348ish. It appears to be a two push up and a bear flag so perhaps the overnight games are over and the dumping will begin at open.
If the 34 dma should fail, my near term support lines are 1325-1326 formed by the gap up on 2/3/12 followed by the 50 dma at 1321.35.
Hourly chart on the Futures is already starting to break down out of the bear flag however, I am concerned that VWAP (orange lines) will keep the market from going down. Only volume busts VWAP and with the exception of yesterday, volume has been non-existent on the downside. Once it kisses VWAP, bears are toast. Yesterday, despite the massive selling, we managed to avoid kissing VWAP, and thus, could continue selling without interruption from the mean reversion traders.
Bears are also fighting against the fact that yesterday was a major distribution down day. NYSE decliners were >2700 etc. Usually such days are followed by a bounce.
Lastly, the iPad3 press conference is today and we all know that AAPL can hold up the NQ which will in turn, keep the rest of the market afloat. AAPL made a nice panic bottom yesterday, early on, and almost made it back to green territory by close on this news. Anyone else find it odd that AAPL (now the largest market cap in the world) still trades like a penny stock with crazy bid/ask spreads?
Thursday, October 20, 2011
ES daily chart 10/20/2011
It is make or break time, we have 200 EMA acting as resistance while 20 is looking to crossover 50. Market is moving one way or the other. I would be playing a breakout lower, however I would not be dogmatic if the tape tells me I am wrong. My feeling with the MACD topping on the daily chart and the divergence (marked with red lines below) on the 4 hour chart, we should see the market lower, rejecting the 20/50 crossover.
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